Mind games and Strategy

A number of Pakistani ex-cricketers from Imran to Moin are predicting that Pak has the edge in the forthcoming series and will be able to win easily. Akram’s quote of "throw them on the canvas" about the Indian batting line up, also gained prominence in the media today. A number of them are pointing out that the internal rifts, with Sourav saga and the fact that the top order has been brittle even against a toothless Lankan attack are big negatives that can not be overcome against superior Pakistan bowling. Then, there is also talk about the winter aspect and the hard, bouncy tracks as well that have been requested by Inzi.

I have to agree with most of these points but most cricketing predictions fall by the wayside unless you are a percentage team like Australia and can produce winners (Mike Hussey for example at the ripe age of 30 and scoring in Bradmansque fashion) by the dozen. Having said that, Indian team has its weaknesses and good teams, in the past have exposed them. I am going to dwell into points that are already not in the media and put some new spin here on the strategy and mind games – just for the 1^st test, to start with.

Traditional Indian Weakness in the first few games of any tour : Over the years, I have watched India start tours abroad very badly and loose the first game straightaway. This might be largely due to they not acclimatizing themselves but even in tough tours, they somehow start putting a fight towards the end (by which time, it is invariably too late). This time around, the transition should not be that difficult since after all, Lahore is minutes across the Punjab border and the usual rustiness associated with some lay offs is not going to be there. The key for Rahul and co. is to get down to fighting levels straightaway at Lahore and not exhibit this traditional Indian weakness of bad opening gambits.

Get the selection right : There is this old saying of ‘catching a genie in a bottle’. Maybe, India has found its genie – Wasim Jaffer ( Mike Hussey’s example again. Good first class background, lots of runs, not so young but perhaps the crucial difference being Jaffer having messed his earlier international chances). I will go with Jaffer as opener (even if he fails in the practice game) since he is in the best form of his career and much safer option than trigger happy Gambhir. There are other compromise moves discussed like sending Yuvaraj / SG or the outrageous suggestion of sending Parthiv but common sense says that put all this fracas aside and go with Jaffer. The last puzzle is going to be the 4^th bowling spot.(Pathan is the lone sure hand here. The rest of the cast can vary depending on the pitch). I will go with Pathan + Zaheer + Agarkar + Kumble ( and not Bhajji, the reason being I feel that Kumble is more patient and will fit with the draw plan [below] much better than the flamboyant Bhajji).

Play for a draw @ Lahore : This might look negative to start with but let us be honest. With the blazing form that the Pak team is in (Butt, Inzi, Youhana and Kamran are in great form plus Afridi has exhibited a rare consistency in his 50s and 60s now. The only soft spot is perhaps Malik and to some extent Younus Khan), India has little chance for a win – unless Pak messes up in an outrageous fashion. I am not sure what happened to the Pak request of starting the matches by 30 minutes earlier. If that happens to be okayed, then there is a possibility of squeezing in 85 overs and if not it is going to be 75 overs a day. India’s best chances for a draw are with the Wall – Rahul Dravid. The last time he batted in a test, he was able to score a 50+ in the 2^nd innings at Kotla (and looked capable of more, until he ran himself out) but that was some weeks ago. Off hand, I have to say that his stats. after taking over captaincy have not reached the dizzy heights before and it is high time he mends that.

Bowl to a plan : This is easier said than done. In the last tour, I did not see any great ‘Brearly’ like strategic moves by Inzi. But, this time around – that gap is filled by Woolmer’s presence and success breeds its own confidence. The key is to contain the rampaging Butt (again the old weakness against left handers) and of course Inzi. Polishing the lower order is also vital since a 250 for 5 score can easily run away to 450 score, if you allow Kamran and Afridi to flourish.

Finally, keep your chin up and work on the details. Not everything is going to go as per plan. Hence, a plan B and even a plan C is essential. It might be as simple as deciding who should be the night watchman (India’s best bet – Agarkar IMHO), getting slip fielders right (VVS, RD – not to grass the odd chance that may come by) and who will field at shortleg if GG is not playing. All in all, RD must consider that his job well done, if India goes to the 2^nd test, unbeaten. By then, a lot can happen and a re-look at this will be required.